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Radnicki Pirot vs SFS Borac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnicki Pirot
Radnicki Pirot
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SFS Borac
SFS Borac
6/1/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 30Stadion Dragan Nikolić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Radnicki Pirot60%
×Draw21%
SFS Borac19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki Pirot
2.01
SFS Borac
1.04

Radnicki Pirot creates 93% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 72 away

creates per match

Radnicki Pirot
2.44
SFS Borac
1.10

allows per match

Radnicki Pirot
0.97
SFS Borac
1.58

finishing

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par
SFS Borac+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki Pirot ↓

SFS Borac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Radnicki Pirot or draw
81%
Radnicki Pirot or SFS Borac
79%
Draw or SFS Borac
40%

Winning margin

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+
36%
SFS Borac wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals
87%
Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals
59%
Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals
32%
SFS Borac 1+ goals
65%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
28%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)
76%
SFS Borac (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki Pirot at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

SFS Borac away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki Pirot attack 2.44 + SFS Borac defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.01

SFS Borac attack 1.10 + Radnicki Pirot defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Radnicki Pirot scores more
60%
level
21%
SFS Borac scores more
19%

Radnicki Pirot at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Radnicki Pirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Radnicki Pirot 2–1 SFS Borac

Radnicki Pirot beat SFS Borac 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Nikolić in Pirot.