Radnicki Pirot 0–0 Dunav Prahovo: Result & Stats

Radnicki Pirot

FT

0 – 0

Dunav Prahovo

11/3/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 13Stadion Dragan Nikolić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Radnicki Pirot64%

×Draw20%

Dunav Prahovo17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnicki PirotExpected goals in this matchDunav Prahovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.01

Radnicki Pirot

2.17

Dunav Prahovo

1.01

Radnicki Pirot creates 115% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 79 away

2.44

creates per match

1.05

0.97

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Radnicki Pirot

2.44

Dunav Prahovo

1.05

allows per match

Radnicki Pirot

0.97

Dunav Prahovo

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki Pirot ↓

Dunav Prahovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Radnicki Pirot or draw

83%

Radnicki Pirot or Dunav Prahovo

80%

Draw or Dunav Prahovo

36%

Winning margin

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+

40%

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals

89%

Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals

64%

Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals

36%

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals

64%

Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals

27%

Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)

79%

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki Pirot at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Dunav Prahovo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki Pirot attack 2.44 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.17

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.05 + Radnicki Pirot defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Radnicki Pirot scores more

64%

level

20%

Dunav Prahovo scores more

17%

Radnicki Pirot at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Radnicki Pirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff