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Radnicki Pirot vs Djerdap Kladovo — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnicki Pirot
Radnicki Pirot
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Djerdap Kladovo
Djerdap Kladovo
10/12/2025Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 9Stadion Dragan Nikolić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Radnicki Pirot65%
×Draw19%
Djerdap Kladovo16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki Pirot
2.30
Djerdap Kladovo
1.07

Radnicki Pirot creates 115% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 44 away

creates per match

Radnicki Pirot
2.44
Djerdap Kladovo
1.18

allows per match

Radnicki Pirot
0.97
Djerdap Kladovo
2.16

finishing

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par
Djerdap Kladovo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki Pirot ↓

Djerdap Kladovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Radnicki Pirot or draw
84%
Radnicki Pirot or Djerdap Kladovo
81%
Draw or Djerdap Kladovo
35%

Winning margin

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+
42%
Djerdap Kladovo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals
90%
Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals
67%
Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals
40%
Djerdap Kladovo 1+ goals
66%
Djerdap Kladovo 2+ goals
29%
Djerdap Kladovo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)
80%
Djerdap Kladovo (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki Pirot at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Djerdap Kladovo away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.16 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki Pirot attack 2.44 + Djerdap Kladovo defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.30

Djerdap Kladovo attack 1.18 + Radnicki Pirot defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Radnicki Pirot scores more
65%
level
19%
Djerdap Kladovo scores more
16%

Radnicki Pirot at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Radnicki Pirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Radnicki Pirot 1–0 Djerdap Kladovo

Radnicki Pirot beat Djerdap Kladovo 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on October 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Nikolić in Pirot.