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Radnicki Pirot vs Car Konstantin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnicki Pirot
Radnicki Pirot
FT
6 – 0
Car Konstantin
Car Konstantin
5/14/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 26Stadion Dragan Nikolić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Radnicki Pirot66%
×Draw18%
Car Konstantin16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki Pirot
2.40
Car Konstantin
1.08

Radnicki Pirot creates 122% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 42 away

creates per match

Radnicki Pirot
2.44
Car Konstantin
1.19

allows per match

Radnicki Pirot
0.97
Car Konstantin
2.36

finishing

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par
Car Konstantin+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki Pirot ↓

Car Konstantin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Radnicki Pirot or draw
84%
Radnicki Pirot or Car Konstantin
82%
Draw or Car Konstantin
34%

Winning margin

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+
44%
Car Konstantin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals
91%
Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals
69%
Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals
42%
Car Konstantin 1+ goals
66%
Car Konstantin 2+ goals
29%
Car Konstantin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)
81%
Car Konstantin (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki Pirot at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Car Konstantin away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki Pirot attack 2.44 + Car Konstantin defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.40

Car Konstantin attack 1.19 + Radnicki Pirot defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Radnicki Pirot scores more
66%
level
18%
Car Konstantin scores more
16%

Radnicki Pirot at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Radnicki Pirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnicki Pirot vs Car Konstantin

Radnicki Pirot beat Car Konstantin 6-0 in Srpska Liga - East on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Nikolić in Pirot.