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Radnički Obrenovac vs Torlak — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Radnički Obrenovac
Radnički Obrenovac
FT
1 – 0
Torlak
Torlak
4/2/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 20Stadion Pored Kolubare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Radnički Obrenovac52%
×Draw24%
Torlak24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Obrenovac
1.71
Torlak
1.10

Radnički Obrenovac creates 55% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 42 away

creates per match

Radnički Obrenovac
1.90
Torlak
1.21

allows per match

Radnički Obrenovac
1.00
Torlak
1.52

finishing

Radnički Obrenovac+0.00on par
Torlak+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Obrenovac ↓

Torlak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Radnički Obrenovac or draw
76%
Radnički Obrenovac or Torlak
76%
Draw or Torlak
48%

Winning margin

Radnički Obrenovac wins by 2+
28%
Torlak wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Radnički Obrenovac 1+ goals
82%
Radnički Obrenovac 2+ goals
51%
Radnički Obrenovac 3+ goals
24%
Torlak 1+ goals
67%
Torlak 2+ goals
30%
Torlak 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radnički Obrenovac (draw refunded)
68%
Torlak (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Obrenovac at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.00 · 98 matches

Torlak away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Obrenovac attack 1.90 + Torlak defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.71

Torlak attack 1.21 + Radnički Obrenovac defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Radnički Obrenovac scores more
52%
level
24%
Torlak scores more
24%

Radnički Obrenovac at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Radnički Obrenovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Obrenovac vs Torlak

Radnički Obrenovac beat Torlak 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Pored Kolubare in Obrenovac.