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Radnički Obrenovac vs Polet Dorćol — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Radnički Obrenovac
Radnički Obrenovac
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Polet Dorćol
Polet Dorćol
5/18/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 28Stadion Pored Kolubare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Radnički Obrenovac58%
×Draw23%
Polet Dorćol19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Obrenovac
1.76
Polet Dorćol
0.88

Radnički Obrenovac creates 100% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 68 away

creates per match

Radnički Obrenovac
1.90
Polet Dorćol
0.75

allows per match

Radnički Obrenovac
1.00
Polet Dorćol
1.62

finishing

Radnički Obrenovac+0.00on par
Polet Dorćol+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Obrenovac ↓

Polet Dorćol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Radnički Obrenovac or draw
81%
Radnički Obrenovac or Polet Dorćol
77%
Draw or Polet Dorćol
42%

Winning margin

Radnički Obrenovac wins by 2+
33%
Polet Dorćol wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Radnički Obrenovac 1+ goals
83%
Radnički Obrenovac 2+ goals
52%
Radnički Obrenovac 3+ goals
26%
Polet Dorćol 1+ goals
59%
Polet Dorćol 2+ goals
22%
Polet Dorćol 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Radnički Obrenovac (draw refunded)
76%
Polet Dorćol (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Obrenovac at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.00 · 98 matches

Polet Dorćol away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Obrenovac attack 1.90 + Polet Dorćol defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.76

Polet Dorćol attack 0.75 + Radnički Obrenovac defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Radnički Obrenovac scores more
58%
level
23%
Polet Dorćol scores more
19%

Radnički Obrenovac at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Radnički Obrenovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Obrenovac vs Polet Dorćol

Radnički Obrenovac beat Polet Dorćol 4-2 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pored Kolubare in Obrenovac.