Radnički Novi Beograd 0–3 Semendrija 1924

Radnički Novi Beograd

FT

0 – 3

Semendrija 1924

3/6/2024

Prva Liga · Round 23Stadion FK Bežanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Radnički Novi Beograd38%

×Draw29%

Semendrija 192433%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchSemendrija 1924

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.07

Radnički Novi Beograd

1.18

Semendrija 1924

1.07

Radnički Novi Beograd creates 10% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 71 away

0.97

creates per match

0.96

1.19

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Radnički Novi Beograd

0.97

Semendrija 1924

0.96

allows per match

Radnički Novi Beograd

1.19

Semendrija 1924

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Novi Beograd ↓

Semendrija 1924 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Radnički Novi Beograd or draw

67%

Radnički Novi Beograd or Semendrija 1924

71%

Draw or Semendrija 1924

62%

Winning margin

Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+

16%

Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals

69%

Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals

33%

Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals

12%

Semendrija 1924 1+ goals

66%

Semendrija 1924 2+ goals

29%

Semendrija 1924 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

54%

Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Novi Beograd at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

Semendrija 1924 away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.39 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 0.97 + Semendrija 1924 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.18

Semendrija 1924 attack 0.96 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Radnički Novi Beograd scores more

38%

level

29%

Semendrija 1924 scores more

33%

Radnički Novi Beograd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Radnički Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff