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Radnički Novi Beograd vs OFK Beograd — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Radnički Novi Beograd
Radnički Novi Beograd
FT
1 – 0
OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd
3/26/2022Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 18Sportski Centar Ada Ciganlija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Radnički Novi Beograd34%
×Draw27%
OFK Beograd39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Novi Beograd
1.21
OFK Beograd
1.33

OFK Beograd creates 10% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 57 away

creates per match

Radnički Novi Beograd
1.43
OFK Beograd
1.56

allows per match

Radnički Novi Beograd
1.10
OFK Beograd
1.00

finishing

Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par
OFK Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Novi Beograd ↓

OFK Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Radnički Novi Beograd or draw
61%
Radnički Novi Beograd or OFK Beograd
73%
Draw or OFK Beograd
66%

Winning margin

Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+
14%
OFK Beograd wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals
70%
Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals
34%
Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals
12%
OFK Beograd 1+ goals
74%
OFK Beograd 2+ goals
38%
OFK Beograd 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
46%
OFK Beograd (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

OFK Beograd away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 1.43 + OFK Beograd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

OFK Beograd attack 1.56 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Radnički Novi Beograd scores more
34%
level
27%
OFK Beograd scores more
39%

OFK Beograd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "OFK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Radnički Novi Beograd 1–0 OFK Beograd

Radnički Novi Beograd beat OFK Beograd 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Sportski Centar Ada Ciganlija in Beograd.