Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Radnički Novi Beograd vs Indjija — Prva Liga 2018

Radnički Novi Beograd
Radnički Novi Beograd
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Indjija
Indjija
10/24/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 15Stadion FK Radnički Beograd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Radnički Novi Beograd33%
×Draw29%
Indjija38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Novi Beograd
1.05
Indjija
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 92 away

creates per match

Radnički Novi Beograd
0.97
Indjija
1.09

allows per match

Radnički Novi Beograd
1.19
Indjija
1.13

finishing

Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par
Indjija+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Novi Beograd ↓

Indjija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Radnički Novi Beograd or draw
62%
Radnički Novi Beograd or Indjija
71%
Draw or Indjija
67%

Winning margin

Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+
13%
Indjija wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals
65%
Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals
28%
Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals
9%
Indjija 1+ goals
68%
Indjija 2+ goals
32%
Indjija 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
47%
Indjija (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Novi Beograd at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

Indjija away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 0.97 + Indjija defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Indjija attack 1.09 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Radnički Novi Beograd scores more
33%
level
29%
Indjija scores more
38%

Indjija at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Indjija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Radnički Novi Beograd 0–1 Indjija

Indjija beat Radnički Novi Beograd 1-0 in Prva Liga on October 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Radnički Beograd in Beograd.