Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Radnički Novi Beograd vs Crvena Zvezda MML — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Radnički Novi Beograd
Radnički Novi Beograd
FT
2 – 0
Crvena Zvezda MML
Crvena Zvezda MML
9/12/2020Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 5Stadion FK Radnički Beograd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Radnički Novi Beograd55%
×Draw24%
Crvena Zvezda MML21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Novi Beograd
1.71
Crvena Zvezda MML
0.96

Radnički Novi Beograd creates 78% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 27 away

creates per match

Radnički Novi Beograd
1.43
Crvena Zvezda MML
0.81

allows per match

Radnički Novi Beograd
1.10
Crvena Zvezda MML
2.00

finishing

Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par
Crvena Zvezda MML+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Novi Beograd ↓

Crvena Zvezda MML →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Radnički Novi Beograd or draw
79%
Radnički Novi Beograd or Crvena Zvezda MML
76%
Draw or Crvena Zvezda MML
45%

Winning margin

Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+
30%
Crvena Zvezda MML wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals
82%
Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals
51%
Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals
24%
Crvena Zvezda MML 1+ goals
62%
Crvena Zvezda MML 2+ goals
25%
Crvena Zvezda MML 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
72%
Crvena Zvezda MML (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Crvena Zvezda MML away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 1.43 + Crvena Zvezda MML defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Crvena Zvezda MML attack 0.81 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Radnički Novi Beograd scores more
55%
level
24%
Crvena Zvezda MML scores more
21%

Radnički Novi Beograd at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Radnički Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Novi Beograd vs Crvena Zvezda MML

Radnički Novi Beograd beat Crvena Zvezda MML 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Radnički Beograd in Beograd.