Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Radnicki NIS vs Radnik Surdulica — Super Liga 2026

Radnicki NIS
Radnicki NIS
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
3/3/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 23Gradski Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Radnicki NIS49%
×Draw26%
Radnik Surdulica26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki NIS
1.51
Radnik Surdulica
1.02

Radnicki NIS creates 48% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 128 away

creates per match

Radnicki NIS
1.54
Radnik Surdulica
0.92

allows per match

Radnicki NIS
1.13
Radnik Surdulica
1.48

finishing

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par
Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki NIS ↓

Radnik Surdulica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Radnicki NIS or draw
74%
Radnicki NIS or Radnik Surdulica
74%
Draw or Radnik Surdulica
51%

Winning margin

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+
25%
Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals
78%
Radnicki NIS 2+ goals
44%
Radnicki NIS 3+ goals
19%
Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
64%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
27%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)
65%
Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki NIS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 147 matches

Radnik Surdulica away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.48 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki NIS attack 1.54 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.51

Radnik Surdulica attack 0.92 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Radnicki NIS scores more
49%
level
26%
Radnik Surdulica scores more
26%

Radnicki NIS at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Radnicki NIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnicki NIS vs Radnik Surdulica

Radnik Surdulica beat Radnicki NIS 3-0 in Super Liga on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Čair in Niš.