Radnicki NIS 2–0 Proleter Novi SAD: Result & Stats

Radnicki NIS

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Proleter Novi SAD

8/29/2020

Super Liga · Round 6Gradski Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Radnicki NIS51%

×Draw26%

Proleter Novi SAD24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnicki NISExpected goals in this matchProleter Novi SAD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.97

Radnicki NIS

1.55

Proleter Novi SAD

0.97

Radnicki NIS creates 60% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 72 away

1.54

creates per match

0.81

1.13

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Radnicki NIS

1.54

Proleter Novi SAD

0.81

allows per match

Radnicki NIS

1.13

Proleter Novi SAD

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki NIS ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Radnicki NIS or draw

76%

Radnicki NIS or Proleter Novi SAD

74%

Draw or Proleter Novi SAD

49%

Winning margin

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+

26%

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals

79%

Radnicki NIS 2+ goals

46%

Radnicki NIS 3+ goals

20%

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals

62%

Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals

25%

Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)

68%

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki NIS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 147 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki NIS attack 1.54 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.55

Proleter Novi SAD attack 0.81 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Radnicki NIS scores more

51%

level

26%

Proleter Novi SAD scores more

24%

Radnicki NIS at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Radnicki NIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff