Radnicki NIS 3–1 Jedinstvo Ub: Result & Stats

Radnicki NIS

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Jedinstvo Ub

J. Nišić 82', 26'

R. Bosić 6'

E. Hoard 49'

5/24/2025

Super Liga · Relegation Round - 7Gradski Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Radnicki NIS62%

×Draw21%

Jedinstvo Ub17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnicki NISExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Ub

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.93

Radnicki NIS

1.98

Jedinstvo Ub

0.93

Radnicki NIS creates 113% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 19 away

1.53

creates per match

0.74

1.12

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Radnicki NIS

1.53

Jedinstvo Ub

0.74

allows per match

Radnicki NIS

1.12

Jedinstvo Ub

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki NIS ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Radnicki NIS or draw

83%

Radnicki NIS or Jedinstvo Ub

79%

Draw or Jedinstvo Ub

38%

Winning margin

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+

37%

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals

86%

Radnicki NIS 2+ goals

59%

Radnicki NIS 3+ goals

31%

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

61%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

24%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)

78%

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki NIS at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki NIS attack 1.53 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.98

Jedinstvo Ub attack 0.74 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Radnicki NIS scores more

62%

level

21%

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

17%

Radnicki NIS at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Radnicki NIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

J. Nišić

Radnicki NIS · M

8.9

Match Events

6'

R. Bosić↳ M. Yamkam

26'

J. Nišić

46'

L. Mladenović← S. Rakić

49'

E. Hoard↳ M. Mitrović

58'

M. Petković← U. Vitas

58'

J. Mituljikić← I. Tanko

59'

A. Stojanović← N. Belaković

59'

K. Bošković← D. Aćimović

73'

L. Izderić← R. Bosić

79'

Simon Amin← I. Yurukov

82'

J. Nišić↳ M. Gemović

83'

R. Lazić← M. Mitrović

83'

U. Stevančević← R. Denzell

89'

V. Vesković← V. Kijevčanin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RadnickiJedinstvo

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots19

2Corners4

15Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots19

6On Target7

3Off Target6

1Blocked6

8Inside Box10

2Outside Box9

Passing

55%Possession45%

470Total Passes395

390Accurate Passes324

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls16

2Offsides4