Radnicki NIS 2–3 FK Vozdovac: Result & Stats

Radnicki NIS

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

FK Vozdovac

3/12/2023

Super Liga · Round 26Gradski Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Radnicki NIS51%

×Draw25%

FK Vozdovac24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnicki NISExpected goals in this matchFK Vozdovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.01

Radnicki NIS

1.59

FK Vozdovac

1.01

Radnicki NIS creates 57% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 109 away

1.54

creates per match

0.89

1.13

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Radnicki NIS

1.54

FK Vozdovac

0.89

allows per match

Radnicki NIS

1.13

FK Vozdovac

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

FK Vozdovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki NIS ↓

FK Vozdovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Radnicki NIS or draw

76%

Radnicki NIS or FK Vozdovac

75%

Draw or FK Vozdovac

49%

Winning margin

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+

27%

FK Vozdovac wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals

80%

Radnicki NIS 2+ goals

47%

Radnicki NIS 3+ goals

21%

FK Vozdovac 1+ goals

64%

FK Vozdovac 2+ goals

27%

FK Vozdovac 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)

68%

FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki NIS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 147 matches

FK Vozdovac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki NIS attack 1.54 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

FK Vozdovac attack 0.89 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Radnicki NIS scores more

51%

level

25%

FK Vozdovac scores more

24%

Radnicki NIS at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Radnicki NIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff