Radnicki NIS 0–3 Dinamo Makhachkala: Result & Stats

Radnicki NIS

0 – 3

Dinamo Makhachkala

1/18/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Topkapı Spor Kompleksi - Field 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Radnicki NIS36%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Makhachkala37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnicki NISExpected goals in this matchDinamo Makhachkala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.31

Radnicki NIS

1.29

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.89

creates per match

1.30

1.33

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Radnicki NIS

1.89

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.30

allows per match

Radnicki NIS

1.33

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki NIS ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Radnicki NIS or draw

63%

Radnicki NIS or Dinamo Makhachkala

74%

Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala

64%

Winning margin

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+

16%

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals

72%

Radnicki NIS 2+ goals

37%

Radnicki NIS 3+ goals

14%

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

73%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

38%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)

49%

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Radnicki NIS at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki NIS attack 1.89 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.30 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Radnicki NIS scores more

36%

level

26%

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

37%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff