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Radnicki NIS vs Brežice — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Radnicki NIS
Radnicki NIS
FT
8 – 1
Brežice
Brežice
6/29/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Radnicki NIS80%
×Draw11%
Brežice9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki NIS
3.57
Brežice
1.17

Radnicki NIS creates 205% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Radnicki NIS
1.89
Brežice
1.00

allows per match

Radnicki NIS
1.33
Brežice
5.25

finishing

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par
Brežice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 84Under: 1684%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki NIS ↓

Brežice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Radnicki NIS or draw
91%
Radnicki NIS or Brežice
89%
Draw or Brežice
20%

Winning margin

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+
62%
Brežice wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals
97%
Radnicki NIS 2+ goals
86%
Radnicki NIS 3+ goals
67%
Brežice 1+ goals
69%
Brežice 2+ goals
33%
Brežice 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)
90%
Brežice (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki NIS at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Brežice away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki NIS attack 1.89 + Brežice defence 5.25 → ÷2 → 3.57

Brežice attack 1.00 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Radnicki NIS scores more
80%
level
11%
Brežice scores more
9%

Radnicki NIS at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Radnicki NIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnicki NIS vs Brežice

Radnicki NIS beat Brežice 8-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 29, 2021.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.