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Radnicki NIS vs Backa — Super Liga 2018

Radnicki NIS
Radnicki NIS
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Backa
Backa
5/19/2021Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 38Gradski Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Radnicki NIS61%
×Draw23%
Backa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki NIS
1.82
Backa
0.81

Radnicki NIS creates 125% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 38 away

creates per match

Radnicki NIS
1.54
Backa
0.50

allows per match

Radnicki NIS
1.13
Backa
2.11

finishing

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki NIS ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Radnicki NIS or draw
84%
Radnicki NIS or Backa
77%
Draw or Backa
39%

Winning margin

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+
36%
Backa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals
84%
Radnicki NIS 2+ goals
54%
Radnicki NIS 3+ goals
27%
Backa 1+ goals
56%
Backa 2+ goals
19%
Backa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)
79%
Backa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki NIS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 147 matches

Backa away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki NIS attack 1.54 + Backa defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.82

Backa attack 0.50 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Radnicki NIS scores more
61%
level
23%
Backa scores more
16%

Radnicki NIS at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Radnicki NIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Radnicki NIS 5–1 Backa

Radnicki NIS beat Backa 5-1 in Super Liga on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Čair in Niš.