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Radnički Lukavac vs Tuzla City — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Radnički Lukavac
Radnički Lukavac
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Tuzla City
Tuzla City
11/17/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 14Stadion Josik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Radnički Lukavac41%
×Draw25%
Tuzla City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Lukavac
1.47
Tuzla City
1.33

Radnički Lukavac creates 11% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

creates per match

Radnički Lukavac
0.75
Tuzla City
0.48

allows per match

Radnički Lukavac
2.18
Tuzla City
2.19

finishing

Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par
Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Lukavac ↓

Tuzla City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Radnički Lukavac or draw
66%
Radnički Lukavac or Tuzla City
75%
Draw or Tuzla City
59%

Winning margin

Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+
19%
Tuzla City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals
77%
Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals
43%
Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals
18%
Tuzla City 1+ goals
74%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
38%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)
54%
Tuzla City (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Lukavac at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Lukavac attack 0.75 + Tuzla City defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.47

Tuzla City attack 0.48 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Radnički Lukavac scores more
41%
level
25%
Tuzla City scores more
34%

Radnički Lukavac at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Radnički Lukavac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Radnički Lukavac 2–3 Tuzla City

Tuzla City beat Radnički Lukavac 3-2 in 1st League - FBiH on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Josik in Lukavac.