Radnički Lukavac 1–1 Jedinstvo Bihać

Radnički Lukavac

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jedinstvo Bihać

9/28/2024

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 7Stadion Josik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Radnički Lukavac36%

×Draw25%

Jedinstvo Bihać39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički LukavacExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Bihać

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.44

Radnički Lukavac

1.36

Jedinstvo Bihać

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 95 away

0.75

creates per match

0.69

2.18

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Radnički Lukavac

0.75

Jedinstvo Bihać

0.69

allows per match

Radnički Lukavac

2.18

Jedinstvo Bihać

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Bihać+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Lukavac ↓

Jedinstvo Bihać →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Radnički Lukavac or draw

61%

Radnički Lukavac or Jedinstvo Bihać

75%

Draw or Jedinstvo Bihać

64%

Winning margin

Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+

16%

Jedinstvo Bihać wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals

74%

Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals

39%

Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals

16%

Jedinstvo Bihać 1+ goals

76%

Jedinstvo Bihać 2+ goals

42%

Jedinstvo Bihać 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)

48%

Jedinstvo Bihać (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Lukavac at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

Jedinstvo Bihać away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.97 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Lukavac attack 0.75 + Jedinstvo Bihać defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.36

Jedinstvo Bihać attack 0.69 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Radnički Lukavac scores more

36%

level

25%

Jedinstvo Bihać scores more

39%

Jedinstvo Bihać at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jedinstvo Bihać will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff