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Radnički Lukavac vs Gradina — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Radnički Lukavac
Radnički Lukavac
FT
1 – 4
Gradina
Gradina
9/14/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 5Stadion Josik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Radnički Lukavac29%
×Draw25%
Gradina46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Lukavac
1.15
Gradina
1.52

Gradina creates 32% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 59 away

creates per match

Radnički Lukavac
0.75
Gradina
0.85

allows per match

Radnički Lukavac
2.18
Gradina
1.54

finishing

Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par
Gradina+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Lukavac ↓

Gradina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Radnički Lukavac or draw
54%
Radnički Lukavac or Gradina
75%
Draw or Gradina
71%

Winning margin

Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+
11%
Gradina wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals
68%
Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals
32%
Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals
11%
Gradina 1+ goals
78%
Gradina 2+ goals
45%
Gradina 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)
39%
Gradina (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Lukavac at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

Gradina away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Lukavac attack 0.75 + Gradina defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.15

Gradina attack 0.85 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Radnički Lukavac scores more
29%
level
25%
Gradina scores more
46%

Gradina at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Radnički Lukavac 1–4 Gradina

Gradina beat Radnički Lukavac 4-1 in 1st League - FBiH on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Josik in Lukavac.