Radnički Lukavac 0–2 GOŠK Gabela: Result & Stats

Radnički Lukavac

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

GOŠK Gabela

9/24/2022

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 7Stadion Josik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Radnički Lukavac20%

×Draw24%

GOŠK Gabela57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički LukavacExpected goals in this matchGOŠK Gabela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.74

Radnički Lukavac

0.92

GOŠK Gabela

1.74

GOŠK Gabela creates 89% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 66 away

0.75

creates per match

1.29

2.18

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Radnički Lukavac

0.75

GOŠK Gabela

1.29

allows per match

Radnički Lukavac

2.18

GOŠK Gabela

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Lukavac ↓

GOŠK Gabela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Radnički Lukavac or draw

43%

Radnički Lukavac or GOŠK Gabela

76%

Draw or GOŠK Gabela

80%

Winning margin

Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+

7%

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals

60%

Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals

23%

Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals

7%

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals

82%

GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals

52%

GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)

26%

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Lukavac at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Lukavac attack 0.75 + GOŠK Gabela defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.92

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.29 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Radnički Lukavac scores more

20%

level

24%

GOŠK Gabela scores more

57%

GOŠK Gabela at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "GOŠK Gabela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff