Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Radnički Lukavac vs Gornji Rahić — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Radnički Lukavac
Radnički Lukavac
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gornji Rahić
Gornji Rahić
11/2/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 12Stadion Josik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Radnički Lukavac37%
×Draw23%
Gornji Rahić40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Lukavac
1.61
Gornji Rahić
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 29 away

creates per match

Radnički Lukavac
0.75
Gornji Rahić
1.21

allows per match

Radnički Lukavac
2.18
Gornji Rahić
2.48

finishing

Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par
Gornji Rahić+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Lukavac ↓

Gornji Rahić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Radnički Lukavac or draw
60%
Radnički Lukavac or Gornji Rahić
77%
Draw or Gornji Rahić
63%

Winning margin

Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+
18%
Gornji Rahić wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals
80%
Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals
48%
Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals
22%
Gornji Rahić 1+ goals
82%
Gornji Rahić 2+ goals
51%
Gornji Rahić 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)
48%
Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Lukavac at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

Gornji Rahić away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Lukavac attack 0.75 + Gornji Rahić defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.61

Gornji Rahić attack 1.21 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Radnički Lukavac scores more
37%
level
23%
Gornji Rahić scores more
40%

Gornji Rahić at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gornji Rahić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Radnički Lukavac 1–1 Gornji Rahić

Radnički Lukavac and Gornji Rahić drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Josik in Lukavac.