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Radnički Lukavac vs Budućnost Banovići — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Radnički Lukavac
Radnički Lukavac
FT
1 – 2
Budućnost Banovići
Budućnost Banovići
4/8/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 21Stadion Josik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Radnički Lukavac29%
×Draw24%
Budućnost Banovići47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Lukavac
1.23
Budućnost Banovići
1.63

Budućnost Banovići creates 33% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 95 away

creates per match

Radnički Lukavac
0.75
Budućnost Banovići
1.07

allows per match

Radnički Lukavac
2.18
Budućnost Banovići
1.72

finishing

Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par
Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Lukavac ↓

Budućnost Banovići →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Radnički Lukavac or draw
53%
Radnički Lukavac or Budućnost Banovići
76%
Draw or Budućnost Banovići
71%

Winning margin

Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+
12%
Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals
71%
Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals
35%
Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals
13%
Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals
80%
Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals
48%
Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)
38%
Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Lukavac at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

Budućnost Banovići away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Lukavac attack 0.75 + Budućnost Banovići defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.23

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.07 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Radnički Lukavac scores more
29%
level
24%
Budućnost Banovići scores more
47%

Budućnost Banovići at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Budućnost Banovići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Lukavac vs Budućnost Banovići

Budućnost Banovići beat Radnički Lukavac 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Josik in Lukavac.