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Radnički Dalj vs NAŠK Našice — League #217 2026

Radnički Dalj
Radnički Dalj
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
NAŠK Našice
NAŠK Našice
3/23/2025League #217League #217 · East - 19Stadion NK Radnički Dalj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Radnički Dalj58%
×Draw25%
NAŠK Našice17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Dalj
1.56
NAŠK Našice
0.71

Radnički Dalj creates 120% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

creates per match

Radnički Dalj
0.67
NAŠK Našice
0.75

allows per match

Radnički Dalj
0.67
NAŠK Našice
2.45

finishing

Radnički Dalj+0.00on par
NAŠK Našice+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Dalj ↓

NAŠK Našice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Radnički Dalj or draw
83%
Radnički Dalj or NAŠK Našice
75%
Draw or NAŠK Našice
42%

Winning margin

Radnički Dalj wins by 2+
31%
NAŠK Našice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Radnički Dalj 1+ goals
79%
Radnički Dalj 2+ goals
46%
Radnički Dalj 3+ goals
21%
NAŠK Našice 1+ goals
51%
NAŠK Našice 2+ goals
16%
NAŠK Našice 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Radnički Dalj (draw refunded)
77%
NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Dalj at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

NAŠK Našice away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Dalj attack 0.67 + NAŠK Našice defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

NAŠK Našice attack 0.75 + Radnički Dalj defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Radnički Dalj scores more
58%
level
25%
NAŠK Našice scores more
17%

Radnički Dalj at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Radnički Dalj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #217: Radnički Dalj 1–0 NAŠK Našice

Radnički Dalj beat NAŠK Našice 1-0 in League #217 on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion NK Radnički Dalj in Dalj.