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Radnicki 1923 vs Zarkovo — Prva Liga 2018

Radnicki 1923
Radnicki 1923
FT
1 – 1
Zarkovo
Zarkovo
3/10/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 26Stadion Čika Dača (Kragujevac)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Radnicki 192349%
×Draw27%
Zarkovo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki 1923
1.46
Zarkovo
0.93

Radnicki 1923 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

creates per match

Radnicki 1923
1.59
Zarkovo
1.10

allows per match

Radnicki 1923
0.76
Zarkovo
1.32

finishing

Radnicki 1923+0.00on par
Zarkovo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki 1923 ↓

Zarkovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Radnicki 1923 or draw
76%
Radnicki 1923 or Zarkovo
73%
Draw or Zarkovo
51%

Winning margin

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+
25%
Zarkovo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals
77%
Radnicki 1923 2+ goals
43%
Radnicki 1923 3+ goals
18%
Zarkovo 1+ goals
61%
Zarkovo 2+ goals
24%
Zarkovo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)
67%
Zarkovo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki 1923 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 51 matches

Zarkovo away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.59 + Zarkovo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Zarkovo attack 1.10 + Radnicki 1923 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Radnicki 1923 scores more
49%
level
27%
Zarkovo scores more
24%

Radnicki 1923 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Radnicki 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Radnicki 1923 1–1 Zarkovo

Radnicki 1923 and Zarkovo drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Čika Dača (Kragujevac).