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Radnicki 1923 vs Nasaf — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Radnicki 1923
Radnicki 1923
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Nasaf
Nasaf
M. Ristic 51'
A. Balde 45'
L. Stankovski 13'
Z. Sadullayev 79'
D. Usmonov 21'
1/21/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Radnicki 192357%
×Draw22%
Nasaf21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki 1923
1.96
Nasaf
1.11

Radnicki 1923 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Radnicki 1923
1.70
Nasaf
1.33

allows per match

Radnicki 1923
0.90
Nasaf
2.22

finishing

Radnicki 1923+0.00on par
Nasaf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki 1923 ↓

Nasaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Radnicki 1923 or draw
79%
Radnicki 1923 or Nasaf
78%
Draw or Nasaf
43%

Winning margin

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+
34%
Nasaf wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals
86%
Radnicki 1923 2+ goals
58%
Radnicki 1923 3+ goals
31%
Nasaf 1+ goals
67%
Nasaf 2+ goals
30%
Nasaf 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)
73%
Nasaf (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki 1923 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Nasaf away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.70 + Nasaf defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.96

Nasaf attack 1.33 + Radnicki 1923 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Radnicki 1923 scores more
57%
level
22%
Nasaf scores more
21%

Radnicki 1923 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Radnicki 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
L. Stankovski
21'
D. Usmonov
45'
A. Balde
51'
M. Ristic
79'
Z. Sadullayev
Radnicki
Nasaf
Bozidar Bandovic
Manager: Bozidar Bandovic
Ruzikul Berdiev
Manager: Ruzikul Berdiev

Match Recap: Radnicki 1923 vs Nasaf

Radnicki 1923 beat Nasaf 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 21, 2026.

Goals: L. Stankovski (13'), D. Usmonov (21'), A. Balde (45'), M. Ristic (51'), Z. Sadullayev (79').