Radnicki 1923 3–0 Mladost Novi Sad: Result & Stats

Radnicki 1923

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mladost Novi Sad

9/16/2022

Super Liga · Round 12Stadion Čika Dača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Radnicki 192345%

×Draw28%

Mladost Novi Sad27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnicki 1923Expected goals in this matchMladost Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.97

Radnicki 1923

1.32

Mladost Novi Sad

0.97

Radnicki 1923 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 20 away

1.44

creates per match

0.65

1.28

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Radnicki 1923

1.44

Mladost Novi Sad

0.65

allows per match

Radnicki 1923

1.28

Mladost Novi Sad

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki 1923 ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Radnicki 1923 or draw

73%

Radnicki 1923 or Mladost Novi Sad

72%

Draw or Mladost Novi Sad

55%

Winning margin

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+

21%

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals

73%

Radnicki 1923 2+ goals

38%

Radnicki 1923 3+ goals

15%

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

62%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

25%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)

62%

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki 1923 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 93 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.44 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.65 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Radnicki 1923 scores more

45%

level

28%

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

27%

Radnicki 1923 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Radnicki 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff