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Radnicki 1923 vs Cukaricki — Super Liga 2026

Radnicki 1923
Radnicki 1923
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cukaricki
Cukaricki
10/5/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 11Stadion FK Metalac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Radnicki 192340%
×Draw26%
Cukaricki35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki 1923
1.40
Cukaricki
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 144 away

creates per match

Radnicki 1923
1.44
Cukaricki
1.29

allows per match

Radnicki 1923
1.28
Cukaricki
1.35

finishing

Radnicki 1923+0.00on par
Cukaricki+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki 1923 ↓

Cukaricki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Radnicki 1923 or draw
65%
Radnicki 1923 or Cukaricki
74%
Draw or Cukaricki
60%

Winning margin

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+
18%
Cukaricki wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals
75%
Radnicki 1923 2+ goals
41%
Radnicki 1923 3+ goals
17%
Cukaricki 1+ goals
72%
Cukaricki 2+ goals
37%
Cukaricki 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)
53%
Cukaricki (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki 1923 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 93 matches

Cukaricki away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.44 + Cukaricki defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cukaricki attack 1.29 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Radnicki 1923 scores more
40%
level
26%
Cukaricki scores more
35%

Radnicki 1923 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Radnicki 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Radnicki 1923 1–1 Cukaricki

Radnicki 1923 and Cukaricki drew 1-1 in Super Liga on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Metalac in Gornji Milanovac.