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Radès vs Rogba Tataouine — Ligue 2 2020

Radès
Radès
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rogba Tataouine
Rogba Tataouine
M. Chouikh 90+6'
A. Ouni 84'
11/19/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade de Rades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Radès45%
×Draw29%
Rogba Tataouine26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radès
1.27
Rogba Tataouine
0.90

Radès creates 41% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 36 away

creates per match

Radès
1.04
Rogba Tataouine
0.56

allows per match

Radès
1.23
Rogba Tataouine
1.50

finishing

Radès+0.00on par
Rogba Tataouine+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radès ↓

Rogba Tataouine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Radès or draw
74%
Radès or Rogba Tataouine
71%
Draw or Rogba Tataouine
55%

Winning margin

Radès wins by 2+
20%
Rogba Tataouine wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Radès 1+ goals
72%
Radès 2+ goals
36%
Radès 3+ goals
14%
Rogba Tataouine 1+ goals
59%
Rogba Tataouine 2+ goals
23%
Rogba Tataouine 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Radès (draw refunded)
63%
Rogba Tataouine (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radès at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 47 matches

Rogba Tataouine away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radès attack 1.04 + Rogba Tataouine defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Rogba Tataouine attack 0.56 + Radès defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Radès scores more
45%
level
29%
Rogba Tataouine scores more
26%

Radès at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Radès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

84'
A. Ouni
90+6'
M. Chouikh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Radès 2–0 Rogba Tataouine

Radès beat Rogba Tataouine 2-0 in Ligue 2 on November 19, 2022.

Goals: A. Ouni (84'), M. Chouikh (90+6').

The match was played at Stade de Rades in Rades.