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Radès vs Bembla — Ligue 2 2020

Radès
Radès
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bembla
Bembla
5/14/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 20Stade de Rades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Radès53%
×Draw25%
Bembla21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radès
1.58
Bembla
0.90

Radès creates 76% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 16 away

creates per match

Radès
1.04
Bembla
0.56

allows per match

Radès
1.23
Bembla
2.13

finishing

Radès+0.00on par
Bembla+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radès ↓

Bembla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Radès or draw
79%
Radès or Bembla
75%
Draw or Bembla
47%

Winning margin

Radès wins by 2+
28%
Bembla wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radès 1+ goals
79%
Radès 2+ goals
47%
Radès 3+ goals
21%
Bembla 1+ goals
59%
Bembla 2+ goals
23%
Bembla 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Radès (draw refunded)
71%
Bembla (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radès at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 47 matches

Bembla away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radès attack 1.04 + Bembla defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bembla attack 0.56 + Radès defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Radès scores more
53%
level
25%
Bembla scores more
21%

Radès at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Radès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radès vs Bembla

Radès beat Bembla 5-1 in Ligue 2 on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Rades in Rades.