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Radès vs AS Marsa — Ligue 2 2020

Radès
Radès
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
AS Marsa
AS Marsa
12/20/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade de Rades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Radès26%
×Draw28%
AS Marsa46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radès
0.90
AS Marsa
1.30

AS Marsa creates 44% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 24 away

creates per match

Radès
1.04
AS Marsa
1.38

allows per match

Radès
1.23
AS Marsa
0.75

finishing

Radès+0.00on par
AS Marsa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radès ↓

AS Marsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Radès or draw
54%
Radès or AS Marsa
72%
Draw or AS Marsa
74%

Winning margin

Radès wins by 2+
9%
AS Marsa wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Radès 1+ goals
59%
Radès 2+ goals
23%
Radès 3+ goals
6%
AS Marsa 1+ goals
73%
AS Marsa 2+ goals
37%
AS Marsa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Radès (draw refunded)
36%
AS Marsa (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radès at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 47 matches

AS Marsa away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radès attack 1.04 + AS Marsa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.90

AS Marsa attack 1.38 + Radès defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Radès scores more
26%
level
28%
AS Marsa scores more
46%

AS Marsa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AS Marsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radès vs AS Marsa

AS Marsa beat Radès 3-1 in Ligue 2 on December 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Rades in Rades.