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Radès vs Ariana — Ligue 2 2020

Radès
Radès
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Ariana
Ariana
3/16/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19Stade de Rades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Radès44%
×Draw27%
Ariana29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radès
1.38
Ariana
1.06

Radès creates 30% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 38 away

creates per match

Radès
1.04
Ariana
0.89

allows per match

Radès
1.23
Ariana
1.71

finishing

Radès+0.00on par
Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radès ↓

Ariana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Radès or draw
71%
Radès or Ariana
73%
Draw or Ariana
56%

Winning margin

Radès wins by 2+
21%
Ariana wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Radès 1+ goals
75%
Radès 2+ goals
40%
Radès 3+ goals
16%
Ariana 1+ goals
65%
Ariana 2+ goals
29%
Ariana 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Radès (draw refunded)
60%
Ariana (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radès at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 47 matches

Ariana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radès attack 1.04 + Ariana defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ariana attack 0.89 + Radès defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Radès scores more
44%
level
27%
Ariana scores more
29%

Radès at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Radès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radès vs Ariana

Ariana beat Radès 3-2 in Ligue 2 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de Rades in Rades.