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Radan vs Timočanin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radan
Radan
FT
1 – 1
Timočanin
Timočanin
5/1/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 32Gradski Stadion FK Radan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Radan58%
×Draw23%
Timočanin19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radan
1.81
Timočanin
0.92

Radan creates 97% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 73 away

creates per match

Radan
1.96
Timočanin
1.05

allows per match

Radan
0.79
Timočanin
1.67

finishing

Radan+0.00on par
Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radan ↓

Timočanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Radan or draw
81%
Radan or Timočanin
77%
Draw or Timočanin
42%

Winning margin

Radan wins by 2+
33%
Timočanin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Radan 1+ goals
84%
Radan 2+ goals
54%
Radan 3+ goals
27%
Timočanin 1+ goals
60%
Timočanin 2+ goals
23%
Timočanin 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Radan (draw refunded)
76%
Timočanin (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radan at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radan attack 1.96 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.81

Timočanin attack 1.05 + Radan defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Radan scores more
58%
level
23%
Timočanin scores more
19%

Radan at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Radan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Radan 1–1 Timočanin

Radan and Timočanin drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - East on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion FK Radan in Lebane.