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Radan vs Kablovi Zaječar — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radan
Radan
FT
2 – 1
Kablovi Zaječar
Kablovi Zaječar
10/4/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 10Gradski Stadion FK Radan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Radan90%
×Draw7%
Kablovi Zaječar3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radan
3.90
Kablovi Zaječar
0.66

Radan creates 491% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

creates per match

Radan
1.96
Kablovi Zaječar
0.53

allows per match

Radan
0.79
Kablovi Zaječar
5.84

finishing

Radan+0.00on par
Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radan ↓

Kablovi Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Radan or draw
97%
Radan or Kablovi Zaječar
93%
Draw or Kablovi Zaječar
10%

Winning margin

Radan wins by 2+
77%
Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Radan 1+ goals
98%
Radan 2+ goals
89%
Radan 3+ goals
72%
Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals
48%
Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals
14%
Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Radan (draw refunded)
97%
Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radan at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Kablovi Zaječar away — creates 0.53, concedes 5.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radan attack 1.96 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 5.84 → ÷2 → 3.90

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.53 + Radan defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Radan scores more
90%
level
7%
Kablovi Zaječar scores more
3%

Radan at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Radan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radan vs Kablovi Zaječar

Radan beat Kablovi Zaječar 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion FK Radan in Lebane.