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Radan vs Jedinstvo Paraćin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radan
Radan
FT
0 – 1
Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
4/25/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 30Gradski Stadion FK Radan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Radan58%
×Draw23%
Jedinstvo Paraćin19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radan
1.79
Jedinstvo Paraćin
0.92

Radan creates 95% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 92 away

creates per match

Radan
1.96
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.04

allows per match

Radan
0.79
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.61

finishing

Radan+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radan ↓

Jedinstvo Paraćin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Radan or draw
81%
Radan or Jedinstvo Paraćin
77%
Draw or Jedinstvo Paraćin
42%

Winning margin

Radan wins by 2+
33%
Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Radan 1+ goals
83%
Radan 2+ goals
53%
Radan 3+ goals
26%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
60%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
23%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Radan (draw refunded)
75%
Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radan at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.61 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radan attack 1.96 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.79

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.04 + Radan defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Radan scores more
58%
level
23%
Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
19%

Radan at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Radan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Radan 0–1 Jedinstvo Paraćin

Jedinstvo Paraćin beat Radan 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion FK Radan in Lebane.