Radan 1–1 Budućnost Popovac: Result & Stats

Radan

FT

1 – 1

Budućnost Popovac

8/23/2020

Srpska Liga - East · East - 2Gradski Stadion FK Radan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Radan52%

×Draw24%

Budućnost Popovac24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RadanExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Popovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.09

Radan

1.71

Budućnost Popovac

1.09

Radan creates 57% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 87 away

1.96

creates per match

1.40

0.79

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Radan

1.96

Budućnost Popovac

1.40

allows per match

Radan

0.79

Budućnost Popovac

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radan+0.00on par

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radan ↓

Budućnost Popovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Radan or draw

76%

Radan or Budućnost Popovac

76%

Draw or Budućnost Popovac

48%

Winning margin

Radan wins by 2+

28%

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Radan 1+ goals

82%

Radan 2+ goals

51%

Radan 3+ goals

24%

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals

66%

Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals

30%

Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Radan (draw refunded)

68%

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radan at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radan attack 1.96 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.71

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + Radan defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Radan scores more

52%

level

24%

Budućnost Popovac scores more

24%

Radan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Radan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff