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RAD vs Torlak — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

RAD
RAD
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Torlak
Torlak
4/17/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 23Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RAD32%
×Draw28%
Torlak40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RAD
1.09
Torlak
1.27

Torlak creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 42 away

creates per match

RAD
0.67
Torlak
1.21

allows per match

RAD
1.33
Torlak
1.52

finishing

RAD+0.00on par
Torlak+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAD ↓

Torlak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

RAD or draw
60%
RAD or Torlak
72%
Draw or Torlak
68%

Winning margin

RAD wins by 2+
12%
Torlak wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

RAD 1+ goals
66%
RAD 2+ goals
30%
RAD 3+ goals
10%
Torlak 1+ goals
72%
Torlak 2+ goals
36%
Torlak 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

RAD (draw refunded)
44%
Torlak (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAD at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Torlak away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAD attack 0.67 + Torlak defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.09

Torlak attack 1.21 + RAD defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

RAD scores more
32%
level
28%
Torlak scores more
40%

Torlak at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torlak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: RAD 1–0 Torlak

RAD beat Torlak 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on April 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi in Beograd.