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RAD vs Stepojevac Vaga — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

RAD
RAD
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stepojevac Vaga
Stepojevac Vaga
10/21/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 11Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RAD30%
×Draw29%
Stepojevac Vaga41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RAD
1.00
Stepojevac Vaga
1.22

Stepojevac Vaga creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 85 away

creates per match

RAD
0.67
Stepojevac Vaga
1.11

allows per match

RAD
1.33
Stepojevac Vaga
1.32

finishing

RAD+0.00on par
Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAD ↓

Stepojevac Vaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

RAD or draw
59%
RAD or Stepojevac Vaga
71%
Draw or Stepojevac Vaga
70%

Winning margin

RAD wins by 2+
11%
Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

RAD 1+ goals
63%
RAD 2+ goals
26%
RAD 3+ goals
8%
Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals
70%
Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals
34%
Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

RAD (draw refunded)
42%
Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAD at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Stepojevac Vaga away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAD attack 0.67 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.00

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.11 + RAD defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

RAD scores more
30%
level
29%
Stepojevac Vaga scores more
41%

Stepojevac Vaga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stepojevac Vaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RAD vs Stepojevac Vaga

RAD and Stepojevac Vaga drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi in Beograd.