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RAD vs Radnički Novi Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

RAD
RAD
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Radnički Novi Beograd
Radnički Novi Beograd
8/27/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 5Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

RAD53%
×Draw25%
Radnički Novi Beograd23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RAD
1.65
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.99

RAD creates 67% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

creates per match

RAD
1.32
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.76

allows per match

RAD
1.22
Radnički Novi Beograd
1.97

finishing

RAD+0.00on par
Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAD ↓

Radnički Novi Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

RAD or draw
77%
RAD or Radnički Novi Beograd
75%
Draw or Radnički Novi Beograd
47%

Winning margin

RAD wins by 2+
28%
Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

RAD 1+ goals
81%
RAD 2+ goals
49%
RAD 3+ goals
23%
Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals
63%
Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals
26%
Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

RAD (draw refunded)
70%
Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAD at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

Radnički Novi Beograd away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAD attack 1.32 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.65

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 0.76 + RAD defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

RAD scores more
53%
level
25%
Radnički Novi Beograd scores more
23%

RAD at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "RAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RAD vs Radnički Novi Beograd

RAD beat Radnički Novi Beograd 2-0 in Prva Liga on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi in Beograd.