RAD 0–1 Radnicki NIS: Result & Stats | Super Liga

RAD

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Radnicki NIS

12/7/2020

Super Liga · Round 17Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

RAD38%

×Draw27%

Radnicki NIS35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RADExpected goals in this matchRadnicki NIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.21

RAD

1.28

Radnicki NIS

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 147 away

1.15

creates per match

1.01

1.40

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

RAD

1.15

Radnicki NIS

1.01

allows per match

RAD

1.40

Radnicki NIS

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RAD+0.00on par

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAD ↓

Radnicki NIS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

RAD or draw

65%

RAD or Radnicki NIS

73%

Draw or Radnicki NIS

62%

Winning margin

RAD wins by 2+

17%

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

RAD 1+ goals

72%

RAD 2+ goals

37%

RAD 3+ goals

14%

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals

70%

Radnicki NIS 2+ goals

34%

Radnicki NIS 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

RAD (draw refunded)

52%

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAD at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.40 · 52 matches

Radnicki NIS away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.42 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAD attack 1.15 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Radnicki NIS attack 1.01 + RAD defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

RAD scores more

38%

level

27%

Radnicki NIS scores more

35%

RAD at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "RAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff