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RAD vs Napredak — Super Liga 2018

RAD
RAD
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Napredak
Napredak
2/22/2020Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 22Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

RAD43%
×Draw27%
Napredak30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RAD
1.40
Napredak
1.12

RAD creates 25% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 147 away

creates per match

RAD
1.15
Napredak
0.84

allows per match

RAD
1.40
Napredak
1.66

finishing

RAD+0.00on par
Napredak+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAD ↓

Napredak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

RAD or draw
70%
RAD or Napredak
73%
Draw or Napredak
57%

Winning margin

RAD wins by 2+
21%
Napredak wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

RAD 1+ goals
75%
RAD 2+ goals
41%
RAD 3+ goals
17%
Napredak 1+ goals
67%
Napredak 2+ goals
31%
Napredak 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

RAD (draw refunded)
59%
Napredak (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAD at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.40 · 52 matches

Napredak away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAD attack 1.15 + Napredak defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Napredak attack 0.84 + RAD defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

RAD scores more
43%
level
27%
Napredak scores more
30%

RAD at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "RAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RAD vs Napredak

RAD beat Napredak 2-0 in Super Liga on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi in Beograd.