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RAD vs Mladost Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

RAD
RAD
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
3/19/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 26Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

RAD34%
×Draw30%
Mladost Novi Sad37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RAD
1.05
Mladost Novi Sad
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 55 away

creates per match

RAD
1.32
Mladost Novi Sad
0.98

allows per match

RAD
1.22
Mladost Novi Sad
0.78

finishing

RAD+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAD ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

RAD or draw
63%
RAD or Mladost Novi Sad
70%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
66%

Winning margin

RAD wins by 2+
13%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

RAD 1+ goals
65%
RAD 2+ goals
28%
RAD 3+ goals
9%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
67%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
30%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

RAD (draw refunded)
48%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAD at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAD attack 1.32 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.05

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + RAD defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

RAD scores more
34%
level
30%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
37%

Mladost Novi Sad at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RAD vs Mladost Novi Sad

Mladost Novi Sad beat RAD 2-0 in Prva Liga on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi in Beograd.