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RAD vs Mladost Lucani — Super Liga 2018

RAD
RAD
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
11/3/2019Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 15Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

RAD42%
×Draw27%
Mladost Lucani31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RAD
1.36
Mladost Lucani
1.13

RAD creates 20% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 147 away

creates per match

RAD
1.15
Mladost Lucani
0.86

allows per match

RAD
1.40
Mladost Lucani
1.57

finishing

RAD+0.00on par
Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAD ↓

Mladost Lucani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

RAD or draw
69%
RAD or Mladost Lucani
73%
Draw or Mladost Lucani
58%

Winning margin

RAD wins by 2+
20%
Mladost Lucani wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

RAD 1+ goals
74%
RAD 2+ goals
39%
RAD 3+ goals
16%
Mladost Lucani 1+ goals
68%
Mladost Lucani 2+ goals
31%
Mladost Lucani 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

RAD (draw refunded)
57%
Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAD at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.40 · 52 matches

Mladost Lucani away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAD attack 1.15 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Mladost Lucani attack 0.86 + RAD defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

RAD scores more
42%
level
27%
Mladost Lucani scores more
31%

RAD at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "RAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: RAD 0–0 Mladost Lucani

RAD and Mladost Lucani drew 0-0 in Super Liga on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi in Beograd.