RAD 3–4 Buducnost Dobanovci: Result & Stats

RAD

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Buducnost Dobanovci

10/10/2021

Prva Liga · Round 12Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

RAD46%

×Draw27%

Buducnost Dobanovci27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RADExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Dobanovci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.02

RAD

1.43

Buducnost Dobanovci

1.02

RAD creates 40% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 68 away

1.32

creates per match

0.82

1.22

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

RAD

1.32

Buducnost Dobanovci

0.82

allows per match

RAD

1.22

Buducnost Dobanovci

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RAD+0.00on par

Buducnost Dobanovci+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAD ↓

Buducnost Dobanovci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

RAD or draw

73%

RAD or Buducnost Dobanovci

73%

Draw or Buducnost Dobanovci

54%

Winning margin

RAD wins by 2+

23%

Buducnost Dobanovci wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

RAD 1+ goals

76%

RAD 2+ goals

42%

RAD 3+ goals

17%

Buducnost Dobanovci 1+ goals

64%

Buducnost Dobanovci 2+ goals

27%

Buducnost Dobanovci 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

RAD (draw refunded)

63%

Buducnost Dobanovci (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAD at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

Buducnost Dobanovci away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.54 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAD attack 1.32 + Buducnost Dobanovci defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Buducnost Dobanovci attack 0.82 + RAD defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

RAD scores more

46%

level

27%

Buducnost Dobanovci scores more

27%

RAD at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "RAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff