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Racing vs Young Sport Academy — Elite One 2019

Racing
Racing
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Young Sport Academy
Young Sport Academy
3/26/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 4Stade Annexe 1 de Japoma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Racing30%
×Draw26%
Young Sport Academy44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing
1.12
Young Sport Academy
1.43

Young Sport Academy creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 79 away

creates per match

Racing
0.92
Young Sport Academy
0.94

allows per match

Racing
1.92
Young Sport Academy
1.32

finishing

Racing+0.00on par
Young Sport Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing ↓

Young Sport Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Racing or draw
56%
Racing or Young Sport Academy
74%
Draw or Young Sport Academy
70%

Winning margin

Racing wins by 2+
12%
Young Sport Academy wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Racing 1+ goals
67%
Racing 2+ goals
31%
Racing 3+ goals
10%
Young Sport Academy 1+ goals
76%
Young Sport Academy 2+ goals
42%
Young Sport Academy 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Racing (draw refunded)
40%
Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Young Sport Academy away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing attack 0.92 + Young Sport Academy defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.12

Young Sport Academy attack 0.94 + Racing defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Racing scores more
30%
level
26%
Young Sport Academy scores more
44%

Young Sport Academy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Young Sport Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Racing 0–1 Young Sport Academy

Young Sport Academy beat Racing 1-0 in Elite One on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 de Japoma in Douala.