Racing 1–3 Stade Renard: Result & Stats | Elite One

Racing

FT

1 – 3

Stade Renard

4/30/2022

Elite One · Round 14Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Racing27%

×Draw27%

Stade Renard46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RacingExpected goals in this matchStade Renard

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.40

Racing

1.00

Stade Renard

1.40

Stade Renard creates 40% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 96 away

0.92

creates per match

0.88

1.92

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Racing

0.92

Stade Renard

0.88

allows per match

Racing

1.92

Stade Renard

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing+0.00on par

Stade Renard+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing ↓

Stade Renard →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Racing or draw

54%

Racing or Stade Renard

73%

Draw or Stade Renard

73%

Winning margin

Racing wins by 2+

10%

Stade Renard wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Racing 1+ goals

63%

Racing 2+ goals

26%

Racing 3+ goals

8%

Stade Renard 1+ goals

75%

Stade Renard 2+ goals

41%

Stade Renard 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Racing (draw refunded)

37%

Stade Renard (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Stade Renard away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing attack 0.92 + Stade Renard defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Stade Renard attack 0.88 + Racing defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Racing scores more

27%

level

27%

Stade Renard scores more

46%

Stade Renard at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff