Racing 3–0 Stade de Bertoua: Result & Stats

Racing

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stade de Bertoua

3/23/2023

Elite Two · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Racing52%

×Draw28%

Stade de Bertoua20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RacingExpected goals in this matchStade de Bertoua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.71

Racing

1.36

Stade de Bertoua

0.71

Racing creates 92% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 18 away

1.33

creates per match

0.72

0.70

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Racing

1.33

Stade de Bertoua

0.72

allows per match

Racing

0.70

Stade de Bertoua

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing+0.00on par

Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing ↓

Stade de Bertoua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Racing or draw

80%

Racing or Stade de Bertoua

72%

Draw or Stade de Bertoua

48%

Winning margin

Racing wins by 2+

25%

Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Racing 1+ goals

74%

Racing 2+ goals

39%

Racing 3+ goals

16%

Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals

51%

Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals

16%

Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Racing (draw refunded)

73%

Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.70 · 46 matches

Stade de Bertoua away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing attack 1.33 + Stade de Bertoua defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Stade de Bertoua attack 0.72 + Racing defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Racing scores more

52%

level

28%

Stade de Bertoua scores more

20%

Racing at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Racing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff