Racing 2–0 Foncha ST: Result & Stats | Elite Two

Racing

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Foncha ST

1/5/2025

Elite Two · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Racing58%

×Draw24%

Foncha ST19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RacingExpected goals in this matchFoncha ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.87

Racing

1.73

Foncha ST

0.87

Racing creates 99% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 50 away

1.33

creates per match

1.04

0.70

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Racing

1.33

Foncha ST

1.04

allows per match

Racing

0.70

Foncha ST

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing+0.00on par

Foncha ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing ↓

Foncha ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Racing or draw

81%

Racing or Foncha ST

76%

Draw or Foncha ST

42%

Winning margin

Racing wins by 2+

32%

Foncha ST wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Racing 1+ goals

82%

Racing 2+ goals

52%

Racing 3+ goals

25%

Foncha ST 1+ goals

58%

Foncha ST 2+ goals

22%

Foncha ST 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Racing (draw refunded)

75%

Foncha ST (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.70 · 46 matches

Foncha ST away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing attack 1.33 + Foncha ST defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.73

Foncha ST attack 1.04 + Racing defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Racing scores more

58%

level

24%

Foncha ST scores more

19%

Racing at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Racing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff