Racing 2–0 Dragon de Yaoundé: Result & Stats

Racing

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dragon de Yaoundé

4/1/2024

Elite Two · Championship Round - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Racing64%

×Draw21%

Dragon de Yaoundé15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RacingExpected goals in this matchDragon de Yaoundé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.82

Racing

1.98

Dragon de Yaoundé

0.82

Racing creates 141% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 16 away

1.33

creates per match

0.94

0.70

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Racing

1.33

Dragon de Yaoundé

0.94

allows per match

Racing

0.70

Dragon de Yaoundé

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing+0.00on par

Dragon de Yaoundé+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing ↓

Dragon de Yaoundé →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Racing or draw

85%

Racing or Dragon de Yaoundé

79%

Draw or Dragon de Yaoundé

36%

Winning margin

Racing wins by 2+

39%

Dragon de Yaoundé wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Racing 1+ goals

86%

Racing 2+ goals

59%

Racing 3+ goals

31%

Dragon de Yaoundé 1+ goals

56%

Dragon de Yaoundé 2+ goals

20%

Dragon de Yaoundé 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Racing (draw refunded)

81%

Dragon de Yaoundé (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.70 · 46 matches

Dragon de Yaoundé away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing attack 1.33 + Dragon de Yaoundé defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.98

Dragon de Yaoundé attack 0.94 + Racing defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Racing scores more

64%

level

21%

Dragon de Yaoundé scores more

15%

Racing at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Racing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff