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Racing vs Bamboutos — Elite Two 2020

Racing
Racing
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Bamboutos
Bamboutos
5/6/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Racing38%
×Draw34%
Bamboutos28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing
0.94
Bamboutos
0.76

Racing creates 24% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 11 away

creates per match

Racing
1.33
Bamboutos
0.82

allows per match

Racing
0.70
Bamboutos
0.55

finishing

Racing+0.00on par
Bamboutos+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing ↓

Bamboutos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Racing or draw
72%
Racing or Bamboutos
66%
Draw or Bamboutos
62%

Winning margin

Racing wins by 2+
14%
Bamboutos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Racing 1+ goals
61%
Racing 2+ goals
24%
Racing 3+ goals
7%
Bamboutos 1+ goals
53%
Bamboutos 2+ goals
18%
Bamboutos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Racing (draw refunded)
58%
Bamboutos (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.70 · 46 matches

Bamboutos away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing attack 1.33 + Bamboutos defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.94

Bamboutos attack 0.82 + Racing defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Racing scores more
38%
level
34%
Bamboutos scores more
28%

Racing at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Racing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing vs Bamboutos

Bamboutos beat Racing 3-0 in Elite Two on May 6, 2026.